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Existen eventos que parecen tan improbables que muchas personas llegan a dar por hecho que son imposibles, pero de acuerdo a la lógica matemática, el hecho de que algo sea poco probable, no significa que sea imposible.
La probabilidad de la vida cotidiana
Algunas veces, durante el día a día ocurren cosas que parecen pura casualidad, como el encontrarse a alguien conocido en la calle, pero este tipo de eventos improbables también tienen su lógica matemática. En el caso de conocer a alguien en una reunión que tiene el mismo día de cumpleaños que uno mismo, las probabilidades se elevan cada vez más entre más personas haya en dicha reunión. Por ejemplo, en un lugar con 30 personas, la probabilidad es de 1 en 365 (8%) ya que 30 personas / 365 días del año igualan 8%.
En un caso que pudiera parecer cotidiano, las probabilidades de morir por intoxicación alimentaria son de 1 en 3,000,000, pero eso no significa que se deban hacer a un lado las recomendaciones normales de cuidados al comer fuera de casa, como el lavarse las manos, beber solamente agua hervida o purificada y utilizar solo platos y utensilios limpios. Por su parte, respecto al hecho de ser alcanzado por un rayo, las posibilidades son de 1 en 300,000 y a pesar de lo trágico que puede parecer ese hecho, las posibilidades de sobrevivir a ello son del 90%. De hecho, de acuerdo al libro de los Récords Guinness, un estadounidense llamado Roy C. Sullivan, quien trabajaba como guardabosques, fue alcanzado por rayos 7 veces en su vida y ninguno de ellos fueron la causa de su muerte.
Por su parte, el gobierno de la India informó en 2016 que el conductor de un autobús fue golpeado por un meteorito y por ser un hecho con una probabilidad tan baja (1 en 1,600,000), la NASA expresó sus dudas respecto a este incidente en particular, pero a pesar de ello si existen casos comprobados, como el de una mujer llamada Ann Hodges, quien fue golpeada por una roca del espacio que atravesó el techo mientras ella tomaba una siesta en el sofá de su casa en Sylacauga, Alabama, en los Estados Unidos, en 1954.
Los juegos y la probabilidad
Los juegos de azar como los de los casinos, son muchas veces estereotipados como de suerte, pero el éxito de los mismos se basa en probabilidades, ya sea en juegos como poker, tragamonedas o ruleta.
Al barajar un mazo de cartas se crea una combinación única, cuya probabilidad de repetirse es tan baja que, según estudios matemáticos, sería equiparable a que en todas las estrellas de la Vía Láctea existieran un billón de planetas, y cada uno de ellos un billón de habitantes en el que cada uno de ellos barajara un billón de barajas 1,000 veces por segundo desde el inicio del universo (Big Bang). De hecho existe un término matemático para definir todas las combinaciones posibles con esos 52 naipes, llamada 52 factorial y cuyo resultado sería: 80658175170943878571660636856403766975289505440883277824000000000000.
Debido a ello, en un juego de poker, las probabilidades de obtener una Escalera Real de Color, son de una entre 649,739, que son similares al compararlas con la probabilidad de ganar una medalla de oro olímpica (1 en 662,000). Muchas personas llegan a pensar que si una máquina tragamonedas ha otorgado un premio recientemente, las posibilidades de que ocurra otra vez son pocas, pero lo que es un hecho, es que las máquinas tragamonedas no tienen memoria y todas las ganancias son generadas por un generador de números aleatorios, por lo que que las posibilidades de obtener premios consecutivos son tan altas como las de no obtener ningún premio. Debido a ello, muchas personas optan por seguir estrategias para escoger una máquina tragamonedas, en lugar de dejar todo a la suerte.
El juego de la Ruleta es otro en el que muchas personas adoptan estrategias para jugar, en lugar de dejarse llevar por el cerca de 3% de probabilidades que tienen de acertar al número ganador durante un giro.
Fuera de los casinos, otro juego muy famoso son las loterías, cuyas posibilidades de ganar llegan a ser hasta de 1 en 175,000,000 ya existe una persona que la ha ganado en siete ocasiones e inclusive ha escrito un libro compartiendo sus secretos para ganar. El afortunado ganador y ahora también autor estadounidense, Richard Lustig gano la loteria de Florida en 7 ocasiones y al día de hoy, su libro es un bestseller en Amazon.
Ciertamente, la probabilidad puede parecer compleja y complicada, pero no siempre es lo que parece, por lo que el estudio de esta ciencia es muy útil. A través de la historia han existido miles de personas que han dedicado su vida al cálculo y estudio de los números, consiguiendo convertirse en maestros del tema y poniendo a la mano datos estadísticos como los leídos en este blog.
Bloguera de hueso colorado desde el 2008. Porqué siempre hay algo que decir yes@elblogdeyes.com
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