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El otro día cuando estaba viendo “En busca de la felicidad” el dialogo que tenía Will Smith con su hijo me dejo pensando mucho en dos palabras, probabilidad y posibilidad; según el argumento se centraba en las diferencias de estas dos palabrejas que aparentemente NO significan lo mismo, en la práctica una se centra en algo que es muy posible que suceda y la otra es algo que tal vez sea posible, esto de la retórica es confuso porque ambas describen algo que puede suceder.
probabilidad. (Del lat. probabilĭtas, -ātis). f. Verosimilitud o fundada apariencia de verdad. || 2. Cualidad de probable, que puede suceder. || 3. Mat. En un proceso aleatorio, razón entre el número de casos favorables y el número de casos posibles.
posibilidad. (Del lat. possibilĭtas, -ātis). f. Aptitud, potencia u ocasión para ser o existir algo. || 2. Aptitud o facultad para hacer o no hacer algo. || 3. Medios disponibles, hacienda propia. U. m. en pl. || hacer alguien su ~. fr. ant. hacer lo posible.
Semántica, ah, en español el significado es jodidamente lo mismo; es curioso cómo funcionan las palabras y como sus significados nos afectan, pero en realidad el argumento de esa película es cierto, probablemente no es igual a posiblemente. Simplemente no lo son y creo que es bueno, que sepamos el contexto de las palabras, que comprendamos su significado, eso nos evitaría sufrir de decepciones. Ya que cuando la mente cree por error que algo es posible, cuando solo es probable, puede ser que cuando tengas los resultados te desanimes.
Y no solo se trata de definiciones de diccionario, se trata de comprender en forma práctica a las palabras, la probabilidad se refiere a estadística, a porcentajes de que algo pase, y la posibilidad es algo más tangible, es algo que está muy cercano al resultado que esperamos.
Entre más analizo estas palabras, más me confundo porque en cierto punto del análisis, parece que son lo mismo, pero cuando pienso de forma práctica en sus diferencias, se bien que no son lo mismo.
Bloguera de hueso colorado desde el 2008. Porqué siempre hay algo que decir yes@elblogdeyes.com
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Yo tengo el mismo problema. Una de las situaciones prácticas que podrías encontrar sería cuando le preguntas a un amigo que si asistirá a cierta reunión. Las posibles respuestas son: “Posiblemente sí asista” y “Probablemente sí asista”. Posiblemente tiene que ver con que es posible que suceda; la acción recae en la voluntad del que lo dice; i.e., se puede realizar pero depende de si la persona quiere o no hacerlo cuando llegue el momento. Probablemente es más sencillo, y puede significar (no es regla) que la persona sí quiere ir pero no sabe si tendrá un improvisto. De ahí que a veces se use “Es probable”, “Es poco probable”, “Es muy poco probable” y “Es muy probable” por ejemplo cuando sabes que sucederá algo pero no sabes cuando; y ese algo hará que no puedas realizar lo que se tenía planeado hacer.
Lo explicaste de manera muy clara Jesus, gracias por el aporte
Gracias Jesus por la explicacion matematicamente lo he comprendido
Quizá os guste echarle un vistazo ^^
https://amatecarolina.wordpress.com/2016/11/09/no-confundas-esperanza-con-expectativas/
Tengo esta duda también, y si hay alguien que me pueda ampliar la duda sería excelente, poniendo un ejemplo entiendo que si lanzas un dado no importa cuantas veces lo lances, la probabilidad siempre va a ser 1/6 de que caiga un numero por ejemplo el numero 1, sin embargo si lo lanzas 100 veces es muy posible que caiga en algún momento un 1 aunque la probabilidad no cambie.
Esto es así?
Las posibilidades, son hechos posibles. Las probabilidades, son hechos probables. (=
Yo no puedo ayudar con el significado de la manera gramatical, pero siendo matemático les puedo dar un ejemplo claro de la diferencia entre ambos términos.
La posibilidad es simplemente el que que algo pueda o no pasar (es un SI o un NO). La probabilidad es un valor que se le da a un suceso de que pueda ocurrir.
Como ejemplo: En un lanzamiento de dados tenemos 3 sucesos POSIBLES (cara-cruz- de canto). La probabilidad de que caiga cara es 1/2, de que caiga cruz es un medio y de que caiga “de canto” es 0 (Cero). En este ejemplo tenemos un suceso (de canto) con probabilidad 0 o IMPROBABLE pero que es POSIBLE.
Otro ejemplo es: Un humano puede volvar agitando los brazos. En este ejemplo la probabilidad de volar es 0 (cero) y la de no volar es 1 (colo se tienen 2 sucesos), pero a diferencia del anterior, el volar agitando los brazos es IMPOSIBLE e IMPROBALBE.
Espero les ayude.
ACLARACION: El primer ejemplo es un volado, no un lanzamiento de dados.
Es posible que llueva, porque tenemos un cielo pero es poco probable que suceda mañana porque no hay nubes en el.
Leyendo sus comentarios y afirmando que poco se de matemáticas podría decir que en la probabilidad el factor que interviene es el pensamiento objetivo, debido a que en esta recopilo información de una situación para luego evaluar el numero de casos que podrían suceder y dar un resultado estimado. En cambio en la posibilidad la subjetividad da la respuesta a una situación, es decir mas rápida y sin pensamientos complejos, como ejemplo: “¿Que posibilidad hay de que un individuo al pasar por debajo de un manzano caiga uno de sus frutos en su cabeza para posterior desmayarse?”, lo mas rápido seria decir que es imposible porque el peso de una manzana no seria lo suficiente para afectar al individuo, Pero en la probabilidad analizaríamos mas hechos como, la altura de la que cayó, en que parte especifica del cráneo se recibió mas impacto y si en esa el individuo tendría alguna malformación o enfermedad que a respuesta del golpe este le produjera un desmayo.